This article in the Huffington Post outlines a leak from senior administration officials of Obama’s plan for Afghanistan.  In brief, it involves an accelerated timetable for inserting an additional 30,000 US troops, bringing total numbers to above 100,000 by the next northern summer.  The plan will also include the announcement of an exit strategy, with US troops commencing withdrawal in just 19 months from now.

The operation against the Taliban has failed to appreciate the likely motivations that are fuelling aggression against the Operation Enduring Freedom coalition.  Based on an understanding of the current life conditions in Afghanistan and on an understanding of human nature using Graves’ model, here’s what I think the US and allies are facing…

I’ll attempt to simplify this as best I can, but the fact is that human nature is highly complex and dynamic – always changing.  The strongest themes likely to be found in Afghanistan are that of Tribalism, with its emphasis on kin connections, sacred tribal land and the safety of the tribal group. This worldview alone is enough to trigger aggression against anyone who would trespass on sacred land and threaten the safety of the tribe. Simply by being there uninvited, the coalition forces are generating hatred amongst the general population.

A second strong theme is that of Powerful Empires, which is reflected in the warlords and power struggles among factions and tribes in the country.  In an evolutionary sense, this theme is the next natural step after tribalism. History is our witness to that; any tribal people will eventually move into a power based society complete with violence and domination. This may look ugly to westerners but it’s normal human behaviour in these circumstances. By invading and attempting to dominate by power, the coalition forces are declaring themselves players in the local power struggles and will attract aggression from those whose territory they invade.

A third theme overlaid on these first two is that of Authoritarian Order, characterised by the fundamentalist belief systems of the Taliban.  This worldview typically uses ‘absolute truths’ such as religion to justify rigid adherence to rules and sacrifice in the name of duty to a higher cause.  When combined with the motivations of tribalism and power plays, this third theme can justify and fuel suicidal sacrifice for a cause.

These three themes represent natural, sequential stages of development for countries like Afghanistan.  Whether the Taliban is present or not, the first two themes are virtually guaranteed to fuel aggression against an invader.  There are many other complex issues at play as well, including the opium trade and cross border dynamics with neighbouring countries.

Unfortunately the US administration has failed to appreciate the complexity of the situation and the motivations of its opponents, and has failed to learn from history – particularly the unsuccessful attempt by the USSR to pacify Afghanistan 1979-1989.

Another 30,000 US troops will simply invite greater opposition from the locals, and by announcing an exit strategy it signals that the goal of ejecting the invading forces is within reach.  For Obama, who has inherited this mess, I suspect the main aim is to achieve a short term win and then exit while it looks good, thus saving political face.